No One Knows Anything: Weeknotes #38
Emre Arolat’s Sancaklar Mosque
I was asked to give a talk to the marketing department of a big media and technology platform.
The brief was to share some trends for the year ahead and discuss the types of things which would affect the audience’s role as custodians of the platform’s brand in Europe.
I started to do some research. Looking at new trend documents. Looking back at my readwise and notion folders where I’ve saved the documents which were published during last year’s trend cycle.
I was reminded of a tweet: Trend reports are like astrology for comms strategists.
Look back at the stuff that VML, or WARC, or Reddit or Google published in the last quarter of 2025. I did. I was struck by three things.
Firstly, the volume of what can best be described as seminal obviousness. ‘People seek growth opportunities’. ‘In a crisis, people worry about money’. ‘People want brands to entertain them’.
Secondly, another editorial strand best described as an ‘insight reality distortion field’. Examples here might be ideas or tropes like ‘Gen Z care deeply about sustainability’, ‘people now value experiences more than physical objects’ or ‘consumers want brands that share their values’. These are well trodden insights. They appeal to our sense of self-importance. That what we do in marketing is closer to sociology rather than commerce. None of these observations account for the existence - and success - of brands like Shein, Ryanair or the fact that consumers have queued around the block for the latest iPhone this last weekend.
Lastly, I was struck by how not one of these documents was able to predict the tumult of the last 9 months. Surely, one of the most volatile and challenging periods for any business (especially those with international operations to be considerate of) in recent memory. The Trump administration has shown that the era of US-backed global security is over. Tarriffs are making it harder for people to do business. Inflation is persistent. Conflict is continuing in the Ukraine and escalating in Gaza. AI at least was on the radar of the authors of these reports, but one would wager that the volume of layoffs we’ve seen at technology platforms was not. Nor was the emergence of DOGE. Or the sudden abandonment of ‘woke policies’ like DEI. Nor the sudden shift rightward from Silicon Valley execs clearly more concerned with preserving share prices and their own personal wealth than elevating humanity.
My conclusion? No one knows anything. Not really. And certainly no one in the marketing industry.
I was reminded of Sir Ken Robinson’s TED talk. Of Picasso’s claim that every child is an artist. Of the Young V&A in East London which poses question after question alongside each of the objects on display.
We have to give up on the idea that we can explain the world around us. And if we do this, perhaps it will liberate us to do the best work of our lives.
For too long we’ve been confident that we have answers. That we know the truth. Strategists in agencies all over the world have been weaned on the notion that they are the smartest guys and girls in the room. That they can wrestle and contain complexity in the name of single minded propositions and thought leaders. All whilst sat at their desks in London or New York or Singapore. Gethin James, writing in his IPA Diploma thesis, tells us this truth about the world we live: when something complicated is simplifed, it is improved. When something complex is made simple it breaks.
The world is becoming more complex. Both globally and locally. The old, comfortable ways of doing things won’t work. And thinking that trend reports or even the teachings of Binet and Field and Sharp accurately show us the way forward when so much is changing is naive and perhaps just a bit lazy. To quote from a documentary I’ve just watched about the downfall of Vice: Fuck what you’ve heard, go see for yourself.
Seeing for yourself will involve not answers, but questions. Shane Parrish’s fantastic Great Mental Models series provides a way forward. A return to first principles. A return to ‘Socratic Questioning’. Asking ourselves fundamental things, every time we encounter a new challenge:
Why do I think this? What exactly do I think about a subject? …. clarifying our thoughts and explaining the origin of our ideas
How I do I know this to be true? What If i thought the opposite?… challenging the assumptions we might hold onto
How can I back this view point up? What is my evidence?… allowing us to substantiate our arguments
What might others think? What if i’m wrong?…. adopting and considering alternate viewpoints
I have written this before, but now more than ever I’m convinced that in age of agentic AI, when answers are cheap, we must both get back to first principles and develop a tool kit of robust questions, but also that we must ensure we’re not falling foul of automation bias… or a new form of ‘death by gps’.
The spirit of first principles and spirit of questioning was on display in droves last week in Barcelona. Monocle’s QOL conference asked some fascinating questions of the world around us: What could a mosque look like? Why do we not invest is design for older people? Why would you shut a thriving business? In a world where so much of the critical thinking seems to be lacking - or perhaps, more to the point, cognitive debt is growing, it was a super refreshing day and one which has strengthened my resolve that questions, not answers are what we must concentrate on developing.
The rise of AI will also prompt us to think about our own role in the world. What is our edge in an age of algorithmic everything? The provocation at the heart of my presentation was that in a world where complexity feels like it was increasing exponentially, no-one knew anything. The more optimistic resolve was perhaps that no one knows everything. As Sapiens tells us, Homo Sapiens became dominant because of our ability to communicate and collaborate. In the face of significant complexity and new forms of technology, perhaps remembering this will provide salvation. We must collaborate more effectively to make sense of the world, asking each other questions about the challenges we face and building a collaborative way forward.
Reading, watching, working, doing ….
Reading The Contrarian by Max Chafkin. Not sure I’m super into the Thielverse. Seems to be less about being a contrarian and more about enriching ones-self no matter the situation. Have a series of books now sat primed on the nightstand. Careless People is the one I’m most excited and intrigued about. Also interested in the book about Conde Nast. Declining media empires obviously on my mind at the moment.
First coaching session with Will. Not sure what to expect - curious about the process, curious about what i’ll get from it. Open to whatever comes.
Started watching Black Rabbit.
Continiuing to really enjoy Alien Earth. Noah Hawley really understands telly, doesn’t he? It’s genuinely additive to the canon - much as his version of Fargo was. So pleased that it’s working. Really great. Also appreciate that the music works. And that they didn’t blast the entire budget on episode one.
Newsletter has been one of the most enjoyable things I’ve committed time to over the last 10-12 weeks. Have really enjoyed ‘collaborating’ via guest posts and a series of interviews conducted via email correspondence. Learning lots and finding the process of producing them very gratifying.
Small trip down to Burnham on Sea on Thursday and Friday to play golf. If i could hit my irons like I drive the ball, my handicap would plummet.
Continuing to enjoy Russell Davies and Flora Joll’s WIP podcast.
